October 2025 Long Island Market Update

Long Island Market Update 📊 (October 19, 2025)

Suffolk & Nassau Counties — what buyers and sellers need to know right now 🏡

If Long Island real estate were a baseball game ⚾, we'd be in the late innings: scoring is still happening, but every move is strategic. Prices are firm, inventory is tight, and mortgage rates (finally) eased a bit. Here's the fresh read on both counties — plus clear, forward-looking calls for the months ahead.

📸 Snapshot: Where the numbers sit

Suffolk County 🗺️

Single-family median sale price (Aug 2025): $714,000 📈, up 5.0% YoY. Homes still command near-list prices. Days on market: 39 ⏱️ (down from 43). Closed sales: -6.9% YoY in August, but +3.0% on a rolling 12-month basis. Active inventory: 2,975 (-5.4%).

Condos: Median $549,000 (+1.7% YoY), inventory up 12.3%, days on market improved to 47.

Nassau County 🗺️

Single-family median sale price (Aug 2025): $875,000 📈, up 5.4% YoY. Days on market: 36 ⏱️ (down from 44). Closed sales: +1.4% YoY in August. Active inventory: 2,097 (-10.2%).

Condos: Rolling 12-month median $850,000 (+15.6%), though the single-month August median was $830,000 with slower condo closings that month.

Note: Local MLS metrics (single-family vs. "all homes") can differ from national portals. For example, Redfin's August read for Suffolk (all home types) was a $685K median (+5.2% YoY) — lower than the MLS single-family median above because it includes co-ops/condos. Use the right yardstick for your property type. 📏

💰 The rate backdrop (and why it matters)

Average 30-year fixed dipped again this week to about 6.27%, flirting with year-to-date lows. It's relief — not a free-fall — and keeps affordability tight but moving in the right direction. Most pros expect rates to hover in the mid-6% range near-term.

🔥 What's really driving Long Island right now

Scarcity is the star. Both counties saw fewer new listings year-over-year in August (Suffolk -5.8%, Nassau -8.7%). When fewer sellers list, well-priced homes still attract multiple offers. 🎯

Speed quietly increased. Time to sell shortened (Suffolk to 39 days; Nassau to 36), signaling steady demand even with higher borrowing costs. ⚡

Price resilience. Single-family medians pushed higher in both counties (+5% to +5.4% YoY in August). Nassau's rolling 12-month trend is also up solidly. 💪

Segment split. Condos/co-ops are a mixed bag month-to-month (normal for smaller sample sizes), but the 12-month trend shows notable strength in Nassau condos.

Macro winds. With rates easing and the Fed in data-watch mode, housing is getting a mild tailwind — but not a gale. Expect "sticky" affordability and selective buyer activity. 🌬️

🔮 County-by-county outlook (next 3–6 months)

Suffolk: Balanced-leaning-seller, with pockets of heat 🔥

Pricing: Expect flat to +2% through early spring on single-family, with premium, updated homes still commanding stronger bids. Tight supply (inventory down in August) should keep a floor under prices.

Activity: If rates hold in the mid-6s, look for a modest pickup in accepted offers over winter vs. last year's lull. Days on market likely stay in the high-30s/low-40s.

Wildcards: East End and waterfront segments can diverge (luxury financed differently, more discretionary sellers). Watch micro-inventory swings. 🌊

Nassau: Tight, efficient, and price-supported 💼

Pricing: Baseline call +1% to +3% by spring for single-family, anchored by low supply (inventory down 10.2% YoY in Aug) and fast DOM (36).

Activity: Entry-to-mid tiers stay competitive; jumbo-adjacent price points depend more on buyer cash/rate buydowns.

Condos/Co-ops: Expect continued two-track behavior — solid 12-mo condo price trend, but choppier month-to-month prints due to volume.

Confidence range: Moderate. Forecast assumes mortgage rates stay roughly 6.1–6.6% and listing volumes remain constrained. A sharper rate drop could unleash "rate-locked" sellers and alter these ranges. 🔓

🎯 Strategy playbook

For Buyers 🏠

Get rate-ready. With rates drifting lower, a lock-and-shop plus a seller-paid rate buydown can materially improve your monthly. 💵

Shop the overlooked. Homes lingering past 21–28 days may be mis-priced or need cosmetic updates — that's where value hides in both counties (given DOM trends: Suffolk 39; Nassau 36). 👀

Be precise with comps. Use single-family vs. condo/co-op comps correctly; county medians mix apples with oranges across sources. 🍎🍊

For Sellers 🏡

Price to the "today" market. Buyers are sensitive at each $25–50K step. The August data shows you still get ~100% of original list when you nail pricing and presentation. 🎯

Prep beats concessions. Minor upgrades (paint, lighting, landscaping) can outperform bigger price cuts when inventory is tight. ✨

Have a plan for the appraisal. Strong YoY medians help, but appraisers stay conservative. Your agent should bring hyper-local comps and improvement lists. 📋

🔍 Micro-trends I'm watching

Early-winter new-listing flow. If New Listings stay negative YoY into November/December, spring 2026 could begin with a tighter-than-usual backlog — supportive for prices. ❄️

Rate sensitivity by segment. If the 30-year dips closer to 6%, expect the $600K–$900K corridor to show the clearest response first. 📉

Condo/Co-op absorption. Nassau's 12-mo condo price strength vs. August's slower month suggests select opportunities for buyers who can move quickly. ⏰

✅ Bottom line

Suffolk: Firm prices, slightly longer shelves than Nassau, and a continued seller's-tilt for updated, move-in-ready homes.

Nassau: Faster pace, tighter inventory, price trend still edging up — especially for well-located single-family homes.

Island-wide: Unless rates break below 6% or listing activity meaningfully rises, expect steady-to-slightly-higher prices into early spring, with competitive pockets at popular price points. 🏝️

👤 About your Long Island guide

Thomas Brady SFR, e-PRO, SRES, BPOR, C_REPS
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker / Director of Operations
Notary Public, Retired N.Y.P.D. Lt., U.S. Air Force Veteran 🇺🇸
Vintage American Realty LLC.
1551 Montauk Hwy. Suite E
Oakdale, NY 11769
📞 631-682-8660
✉️ TomBradyHomes@Gmail.com
🌐 VintageAmericanRealty.com

Thinking about buying or selling on Long Island? I'll run a custom, hyper-local pricing and absorption analysis for your block — not just your ZIP. 🗺️✨